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ยท Tim Montgomerie reflects on President Bush's election victory and concludes by saying that, whilst Bush has moved his party onto new ground by focusing on social reform and by adopting a more generous tone, the Republican Party will need to broaden its support in the future.
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Bush was fortunate but didn't overplay his hand
The strong economy should have given Gore an easy victory but the distaste of the American people for Clinton's character finally caught up with the Democrats. Gore decided not to talk about the eight years of growth whilst he had been VP for fear of being too closely associated with Bill Clinton. The Clintons' subsequent removal of White House furniture and those final day pardons only confirmed that the popular judgment was right. It would have been easy for Bush to have made Clinton's behaviour the defining issue of the campaign and to have articulated the outrage of die-hard Republicans and America's Bible Belt. Bush avoided an outraged tone and instead spoke of his disappointment at how the talented Mr Clinton had squandered his own abilities and America's prosperity. In Philadelphia he said: "Our current president embodied the potential of a generation. So many talents. So much charm. Such great skill. But, in the end, to what end? So much promise, to no great purpose. Little more than a decade ago, the Cold War thawed and that wall came down. But instead of seizing this moment, the Clinton/Gore administration has squandered it." In adopting such a tone he spoke to Middle America and floating voters who decided the election.
Bush was positive
At the conclusion of his speech to the Republican Convention Bush was Reaganesque with these words: "And I believe America is ready for a new beginning. My friend, the artist Tom Lea of El Paso, captured the way I feel about our great land'. He and his wife, he said, "live on the east side of the mountain ... It is the sunrise side, not the sunset side. It is the side to see the day that is coming ... not the side to see the day that is gone." Americans live on the sunrise side of mountain. The night is passing. And we are ready for the day to come." The Democrats have become America's negative force - always on the attack - leaving the sunny uplands to the GOP. Gore's anger during the debates epitomised this.
Bush won on core Conservative values
Throughout the campaign Bush promised (1) to rebuild America's defences; (2) to deliver a big, across-the-board tax cut and (3) to uphold the sanctity of life. They were the three core issues that secured the Republican base for him:
(1) In his pledge to invest in a new missile defence system he demonstrated an acute awareness that today's peaceful times are historically anomalous and the threat of nuclear proliferation requires action now. In his inaugural address he promised: "We will build our defenses beyond challenge, lest weakness invite challenge. We will confront weapons of mass destruction, so that a new century is spared new horrors."
(2) Addressing the Senate Bush said that the American taxpayer had been overcharged and that it was time for a refund. His tax cutting plans have won increasing support as the economy and stock markets have faltered.
(3) Bush values life. In A Charge to Keep he explained why he opposed abortion and supported the death penalty: "I have a reverence for life; my faith teaches that life is a gift from our Creator. In a perfect world, life is given by God and only taken by God. I hope someday our society will respect life, the full spectrum of life, from the unborn to the elderly. I hope someday unborn children will be protected by law and welcomed in life. I support the death penalty because I believe, if administered swiftly and justly, capital punishment is a deterrent against future violence and will save other innocent lives. Some advocates of life will challenge why I oppose abortion yet oppose the death penalty; to me, it's the difference between innocence and guilt"
Bush promoted compassionate Conservatism
In his inaugural address, Bush described his vision for a society where concern for people was a responsibility of every neighbour: "Government has great responsibilities for public safety and public health, for civil rights and common schools. Yet compassion is the work of a nation, not just a government. And some needs and hurts are so deep they will only respond to a mentor's touch or a pastor's prayer. Church and charity, synagogue and mosque lend our communities their humanity, and they will have an honored place in our plans and in our laws. I can pledge our nation to a goal: When we see that wounded traveler on the road to Jericho, we will not pass to the other side." Compassionate Conservatism says that family, faith and character are at least as important to a strong society as welfare expenditure. There will be trials ahead as he, for example, translates warm words in support of faith-based social action into political support that protects the independence of that action.
Bush surprised the media
From his campaign against then Texas Governor Ann Richards until today the media has constantly underestimated Bush. More significantly they have failed to understand him. He has not abandoned core Conservative beliefs on tax or the sanctity of life but he has brought civility to political discourse and a generosity to opponents that has surprised observers so used to the anger of America's right. Learning from Aesop's fable of the sun and the wind he has shown that the same ends can be achieved with a more gentle approach.
Bush's vision stems from his faith
His inaugural address was full of references that would have resonated with other religious people without excluding people. In doing so he spoke to the God-given voice of conscience in all human beings: "Americans are generous and strong and decent, not because we believe in ourselves, but because we hold beliefs beyond ourselves. When this spirit of citizenship is missing, no government program can replace it. When this spirit is present, no wrong can stand against it."
Bush understands people
Ronald Reagan was not very interested in political gossip but instead spent a part of every day answering letters from 'ordinary' Americans. It was one of the reasons he had that popular touch that earned him so much respect. Throughout the campaign Bush emailed friends and family on a daily basis asking them how they thought he fared in the debates and so on. There is no substitute to candid, earthy advice from people you can trust.
Bush understands that politics isn't a game
Describing the Inauguration, commentator Peggy Noonan wrote; "Mr. Bush's eyes filled with tears as he took the oath of office--quite possibly a historical first--and people have discussed why. Family redemption, old losses now avenged. Maybe. But I suspect they were the tears of a 54-year-old man who hadn't amounted to much in his first 40 years-- poor student, average athlete, indifferent businessman, all of this in contrast to his father's early and easy excellence. He had struggled to find himself and his purpose; amazing and fantastic things had happened, and he had gone on to make himself a president--"Called to do great things." By his own admission, Bush has redeemed his life from mediocrity and alcoholism because of his Christian faith. He knows that he has become President for a purpose. He knows his own mind and has said; "I believe great decisions are made with care, made with conviction, not made with polls. I do not need to take your pulse before I know my own mind. I do not reinvent myself at every turn. I am not running in borrowed clothes. When I act, you will know my reasons...When I speak, you will know my heart." What a contrast to Clinton, Gore.... and Blair.
Bush relaxed too early
Although Bush and Gore were neck-and-neck in the polls throughout most of the campaign, Bush threw away a reasonable lead in the final days. His lack of candour over his 'driving under the influence of alcohol' was only part of the reason why he lost a 5- 7% lead that he held only four days before polling day. Bush coasted in the last few days. He was tucked up in bed with his favourite pillows when Gore was campaigning throughout the night in Florida - alongside Hollywood's Ben Affleck - asking for votes in that oh-so-marginal and oh-so-important state. Bush's campaigning in Arkansas and Tennessee on the last day was astute but the pouring of money and time into no-hope states such as California and New Jersey bordered on the arrogant.
Bush must broaden the Republican base
Two-out-of-three evangelicals voted Republican and Bush enjoyed a 15% lead amongst married couples with children. Bush increased GOP support amongst Asian and Hispanic Americans but less than 1-in-10 African Americans supported him - a figure even worse than Bob Dole won in 1996. Bush owed part of his victory to the fact that left-leaning Ralph Nader won more than enough votes that would have given Gore victory in, say, Florida. America is changing. Twenty years ago California was a GOP stronghold. Now Democrats take it for granted as the sunshine state becomes more socially liberal and takes in more and more immigrants - who tend to be poorer and support the Democrats' welfarism. If America is becoming more like California then the GOP needs to do a lot more to build a winning coalition for the future.
Related links
George W Bush - one year on
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